Credit Crunch - What Happens Next in the Mortgage Market?
People are beginning to form views on which way the Credit Crunch is going to turn next. Get a good idea of whats going on in the City here.Related Item:
By Ross Taylor
No one, not even Alan Greenspan or Gordon Brown, could accurately predict what is going to happen in the Mortgage Market, and consequently in the UK property market in the future. There are just too many up and downs and tumultuous events ahead of us to get it right. However, many people are in agreement over what events are expected. In this article I want to make you aware of the events that those in the know are expecting. I've put them in a rough chronological order:
Banks announce big losses - over the last few years, banks have stopped indemnifying themselves against repossessing properties in negative equity. They felt protected by the steady rise in house prices between 2000 and 2007. However the recent slump has found that many properties are now being sold at a lesser price than the debt owed. I've actually heard of some new build flats in Northern cities being sold at £100,000 less than the outstanding debt. Now imagine you are the MD of the Alliance and Leicester and you've just announced profits of £2million. You'd only need the above scenario to pan out 20 times for all your profits to be wiped out! Scary times!! The recent results from HSBC and Lloyds TSB show that even the big High Street banks are not impervious.
Skeletons come out of the closet - there are still lots of headlines surrounding banks to come forward. I think these headlines will go way beyond the notion of irresponsible lending.
Criteria tighten - the rules regarding mortgage lending will get tighter as house prices fall. Why would a bank give you a 95% mortgage when the trends show you will be in negative equity within a year? I expect maximum LTV's to settle at 90% or less.
House prices drop further - as criteria tighten a negative feedback loop will be created. People can't get mortgages so house prices fall. As asking prices drop the bank make their rules harder. Catch-22!
Smaller banks stop selling off repossessions - now in the midst of the Credit Crunch the rental market is experiencing a mini boom. Those First Time Buyers who would have normally have been taking their first step onto the property ladder are now renting - and waiting for the housing market to "bottom out". The smaller banks will soon stop automatically selling off the properties they repossess. They will simply write off the debt and rent the property out until the market picks back up. The bank will employ people to assess whether a property is sale able or whether it should be let. I'm reliably informed that some (ex-) lenders are doing this already.
House prices stabilise - as the supply of repossessions is slowed, it will only be the desperate vendors who will be bringing prices down. The vast majority of those on the market, who are not particularly motivated to sell, will just sit it out.
Lending criteria is slightly relaxed - as house prices stabilise, the banks will ease their current restrictions but I seriously cannot see them going to the extremes we seen before the Credit Crunch. I feel that maximum LTV's will even out at 90 to 95%.
House prices slowly start to rise again - eventually the fundamental drivers in the market like the influx of immigrants from Eastern Europe, the aging population etc will cause the market to rise again. We may well find that like a coiled spring the market returns to an even higher position than before.
It will be interesting to see how many of these predictions come true. Am I the Northern Rock Nostradamus? Only time will tell but be certain that all this will take at least 18 months to conclude. There is going to be a lot of sleepless nights before we can enjoy looking back on the Credit Crunch of 2007.
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